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Buy
Based on the latest 13 weeks of non-commercial positioning data. ℹ️

Sugar No. 11 (Non-Commercial)

13-Wk Max 212,886 226,319 22,238 15,647 53,073
13-Wk Min 184,219 151,410 -26,329 -53,584 -20,707
13-Wk Avg 197,848 168,428 -2,391 -6,657 29,420
Report Date Long Short Change Long Change Short Net Position Rate of Change (ROC) ℹ️ Open Int.
May 13, 2025 200,858 171,928 4,708 -1,782 28,930 28.92% 788,002
May 6, 2025 196,150 173,710 -678 15,647 22,440 -42.11% 797,126
April 29, 2025 196,828 158,063 3,750 -1,780 38,765 16.64% 814,178
April 22, 2025 193,078 159,843 4,656 1,235 33,235 11.47% 830,293
April 15, 2025 188,422 158,608 -7,815 7,198 29,814 -33.49% 854,643
April 8, 2025 196,237 151,410 -16,649 -8,403 44,827 -15.54% 873,824
April 1, 2025 212,886 159,813 1,517 486 53,073 1.98% 894,479
March 25, 2025 211,369 159,327 22,238 1,998 52,042 63.64% 898,876
March 18, 2025 189,131 157,329 4,912 -18,151 31,802 263.91% 899,339
March 11, 2025 184,219 175,480 -6,790 10,480 8,739 -66.40% 881,296
March 4, 2025 191,009 165,000 -15,217 -7,735 26,009 -22.34% 904,274
February 25, 2025 206,226 172,735 614 -53,584 33,491 261.74% 965,822
February 18, 2025 205,612 226,319 -26,329 -32,148 -20,707 21.94% 988,298

Net Position (13 Weeks) - Non-Commercial

Change in Long and Short Positions (13 Weeks) - Non-Commercial

COT Interpretation for SUGAR

Comprehensive Guide to COT Reports for Agricultural Markets

Table of Contents

Introduction

The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports are particularly valuable for agricultural commodity markets, where a complex mix of producers, processors, speculators, and index funds creates unique market dynamics. This specialized guide focuses on applying COT analysis specifically to agricultural futures markets to gain trading and hedging advantages.

Agricultural markets present distinct characteristics in COT reports due to their seasonal production cycles, weather dependencies, global supply chain factors, and the essential nature of these commodities in the food supply chain. Understanding these nuances can provide significant analytical advantages.

Agricultural COT Reports: Key Characteristics

The CFTC provides specialized report formats that are particularly relevant for agricultural markets:

  1. Supplemental COT Report

    Created specifically for agricultural commodities to address the growing influence of index traders. This report separates index traders from the traditional commercial category, providing greater visibility into true commercial hedging versus passive long-only index investment.

  2. Disaggregated COT Report

    Particularly useful for agricultural markets as it separates:

    • Producer/Merchant/Processor/User: Actual agricultural industry participants
    • Swap Dealers: Often representing index exposure
    • Managed Money: Speculative funds and commodity trading advisors
    • Other Reportables: Other large traders
    • Non-Reportable Positions: Smaller traders
  3. Combined Futures and Options Report

    Important for agricultural markets where options strategies are frequently used by producers and processors for hedging.

Agricultural Markets Covered

The COT reports cover the following major agricultural futures markets:

Grains and Oilseeds

  • Corn (CBOT)
  • Soybeans (CBOT)
  • Wheat (CBOT, KCBT, MGEX)
  • Soybean Oil (CBOT)
  • Soybean Meal (CBOT)
  • Oats (CBOT)
  • Rough Rice (CBOT)
  • Canola (ICE)

Softs

  • Cotton (ICE)
  • Coffee (ICE)
  • Sugar (ICE)
  • Cocoa (ICE)
  • Orange Juice (ICE)

Livestock

  • Live Cattle (CME)
  • Feeder Cattle (CME)
  • Lean Hogs (CME)

Dairy

  • Class III Milk (CME)

Special Considerations for Agricultural Markets

  1. Seasonality

    Agricultural COT data must be interpreted within the context of seasonal production cycles:

    • Planting Seasons: Typically see increased hedging by producers
    • Growing Seasons: Weather concerns can drive speculative activity
    • Harvest Periods: Often see peak short hedging by producers
    • Storage Periods: Commercial positions shift from producers to processors and merchants
  2. USDA Reports Impact

    Major USDA reports cause significant position adjustments:

    • Prospective Plantings (March)
    • Acreage Report (June)
    • Crop Production Reports (Monthly)
    • WASDE Reports (Monthly)
    • Grain Stocks Reports (Quarterly)
  3. Weather Sensitivity

    Weather events can drive rapid position changes:

    • Drought conditions
    • Excessive rainfall
    • Early/late frosts
    • Global weather patterns (El Niño/La Niña)
  4. Global Production Cycles

    Unlike financial markets, agricultural markets must account for different hemispheric growing seasons:

    • North American harvest vs. South American harvest
    • Northern vs. Southern Hemisphere production windows

Understanding Trader Categories in Agricultural Markets

Producer/Merchant/Processor/User

Who they are: Farmers, grain elevators, food companies, feed manufacturers

Trading behavior:

  • Producers typically hedge by selling futures (short)
  • Processors typically hedge by buying futures (long)
  • Net position often reflects current point in seasonal cycle

Interpretation keys:

  • Increasing short positions ahead of harvest indicates producer hedging
  • Increasing long positions indicates processor price risk management
  • Extreme positions relative to seasonal norms may signal price turning points

Swap Dealers in Agricultural Markets

Who they are: Banks and dealers who provide commodity index exposure to clients

Trading behavior:

  • Predominantly long-biased due to index composition
  • Position changes often reflect fund flows rather than price views
  • Less responsive to short-term price movements

Interpretation keys:

  • Significant position changes may reflect institutional money flows
  • Generally less predictive for short-term price movements
  • Important for understanding overall market structure

Managed Money in Agricultural Markets

Who they are: Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), hedge funds, commodity pools

Trading behavior:

  • Typically trend-following
  • Responsive to technical signals and fundamental data
  • More volatile position changes than other categories

Interpretation keys:

  • Extreme positions often signal potential market turning points
  • Rapid position changes may precede significant price movements
  • Divergences between positions and price can be powerful signals

Seasonal Patterns in Agricultural COT Data

Corn

  • January-March: Processors often increase long positions
  • April-June: Producer short hedging increases with planting progress
  • July-August: Weather markets drive speculative positioning
  • September-November: Peak producer short hedging during harvest
  • December: Year-end position squaring

Soybeans

  • February-April: South American harvest impacts positioning
  • May-July: U.S. growing season uncertainty drives speculative activity
  • August-October: Producer hedging increases ahead of U.S. harvest
  • November-January: Processor buying often increases post-harvest

Wheat

  • March-May: Winter wheat condition reports impact positioning
  • June-August: Northern Hemisphere harvest creates heavy commercial short positioning
  • September-October: Planting intentions for new crop influence positions
  • November-February: Southern Hemisphere harvest impacts

Cotton

  • February-April: Planting intentions drive positioning
  • May-July: Growing season uncertainties
  • August-October: Harvest hedging peaks
  • November-January: Mill buying often increases

Live Cattle

Demonstrates less pronounced seasonality than crops

  • Feedlot placement cycles influence commercial hedging patterns
  • Seasonal demand patterns (grilling season, holidays) affect processor hedging

Index Fund Impact on Agricultural Markets

Understanding Index Involvement

  • Commodity indices like the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index maintain significant agricultural exposure
  • Index funds maintain predominantly long positions with periodic rebalancing
  • The Supplemental COT Report specifically identifies index trader positions

Key Considerations

  • Index positions tend to be less responsive to short-term price movements
  • "Roll periods" when indices shift positions between contract months can create temporary price pressure
  • Index participation has grown significantly since early 2000s, altering traditional market dynamics

How to Use Index Data

  • Major changes in index positions may signal institutional asset allocation shifts
  • Divergences between index positioning and price can identify potential opportunities
  • Understanding index roll schedules helps anticipate potential market impacts

Case Studies: Major Agricultural Markets

Corn Market

Commercial Positioning: Typically net short, with seasonal variation

Key COT Signals:

  • Commercials reducing short positions during price declines often precedes rallies
  • Managed Money net position extremes frequently coincide with price turning points
  • Commercial vs. Managed Money position gaps widening signals potential reversals

Soybean Market

Commercial Positioning: Varies greatly with global supply dynamics

Key COT Signals:

  • South American harvest periods create unique positioning patterns
  • Processor long positions increasing can signal anticipated demand strength
  • Spread positions between soybeans and products (meal, oil) provide crush margin insights

Live Cattle Market

Commercial Positioning: Processors often net short, feedlots net long

Key COT Signals:

  • Pack
  • Packer short coverage often precedes price rallies
  • Extreme speculative long positions frequently signal potential tops
  • Divergences between feeder and live cattle positioning provide spread opportunities

Trading Strategies for Agricultural Markets

  1. Harvest Pressure Strategy

    Setup: Monitor producer short hedging building before/during harvest

    Entry: Look for commercial short position peaks coinciding with price lows

    Exit: When commercial shorts begin covering and prices stabilize

    Markets: Particularly effective in grains and cotton

  2. Weather Premium Fade

    Setup: Identify extreme speculative positions during weather scares

    Entry: When managed money reaches historical position extremes

    Exit: As weather concerns normalize and positions revert

    Markets: Particularly effective in growing-season grain markets

  3. Commercial Signal Strategy

    Setup: Track commercial position changes relative to price

    Entry: When commercials significantly reduce net short positions during price declines

    Exit: When commercials begin increasing short positions again as prices rise

    Markets: Works across most agricultural commodities

  4. Processor Demand Strategy

    Setup: Monitor processor long positions for signs of anticipated demand

    Entry: When processor longs increase significantly during price weakness

    Exit: When prices rise to reflect the improved demand outlook

    Markets: Particularly effective in processing crops like soybeans, cotton, and cattle

  5. Commercial/Speculator Divergence Strategy

    Setup: Identify growing gaps between commercial and speculative positioning

    Entry: When the gap reaches historical extremes

    Exit: When the gap begins to narrow and price confirms

    Markets: Applicable across all agricultural markets

Combining COT Data with Fundamental Analysis

USDA Reports

  • Compare COT positioning changes before and after major USDA reports
  • Look for confirmation or divergence between report data and position adjustments
  • Monitor commercial reaction to reports for insight into industry interpretation

Crop Progress and Condition

  • Weekly crop condition reports often drive speculative positioning
  • Commercial reaction to condition changes can provide valuable trading signals
  • Divergences between conditions and positioning may identify mispriced markets

Global Supply and Demand Factors

  • International crop production changes drive positioning in globally traded markets
  • Export sales reports influence commercial hedging activities
  • Currency movements impact relative positioning in internationally traded commodities

Integrating Seasonal Fundamentals

  • Compare current positioning to historical seasonal patterns
  • Identify when positions are abnormal for the current point in the season
  • Use seasonal tendencies to anticipate upcoming position changes

Common Pitfalls and How to Avoid Them

  1. Ignoring Seasonality

    Pitfall: Interpreting position levels without seasonal context

    Solution: Always compare current positions to historical seasonal norms

    Example: Producer short positions naturally increase during harvest, not necessarily bearish

  2. Overlooking Contract Roll Impacts

    Pitfall: Misinterpreting position changes during index roll periods

    Solution: Be aware of standard roll schedules for major indices

    Example: Apparent commercial selling during roll periods may be temporary technical flows

  3. Misunderstanding Report Categories

    Pitfall: Not recognizing the nuances between different COT report formats

    Solution: Use the Supplemental and Disaggregated reports for better clarity

    Example: Index fund positions in Legacy reports can distort true commercial hedger activity

  4. Reacting to Single-Week Changes

    Pitfall: Overemphasizing one week's position changes

    Solution: Focus on multi-week trends and significant position changes

    Example: Weather-driven temporary position adjustments vs. fundamental trend changes

  5. Neglecting Spread Positions

    Pitfall: Focusing only on outright positions, missing spread implications

    Solution: Monitor spreading activity, especially in related markets

    Example: Soybean/corn spread positions can provide insight into acreage competition

Resources for Agricultural COT Analysis

Specialized Data Services

  • AgResource Company: Provides COT analysis specific to agricultural markets
  • Hightower Report: Offers regular COT commentary for agricultural commodities
  • Brugler Marketing: Features agricultural-focused COT interpretation

Software Tools

  • Commodity Research Bureau (CRB): Offers historical COT data visualization for agricultural markets
  • DTN ProphetX: Includes agricultural COT analysis tools
  • AgriCharts: Provides specialized agricultural market data including COT information

Educational Resources

  • Agricultural Extension Services: Many offer educational materials on hedging and market analysis
  • CME Group: Provides educational content specific to agricultural markets
  • ICE Exchange: Offers resources for soft commodity trading and analysis

Government Resources

  • USDA ERS (Economic Research Service): Provides contextual market analysis
  • CFTC Agricultural Advisory Committee: Publishes recommendations and analysis
  • USDA AMS (Agricultural Marketing Service): Offers complementary market data

© 2025 - This guide is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Agricultural markets involve significant risk, and positions should be managed according to individual risk tolerance and objectives.

Market Buy
Based on the latest 13 weeks of non-commercial positioning data.
📊 COT Sentiment Analysis Guide

This guide helps traders understand how to interpret Commitments of Traders (COT) reports to generate potential Buy, Sell, or Neutral signals using market positioning data.

🧠 How It Works
  • Recent Trend Detection: Tracks net position and rate of change (ROC) over the last 13 weeks.
  • Overbought/Oversold Check: Compares current net positions to a 1-year range using percentiles.
  • Strength Confirmation: Validates if long or short positions are dominant enough for a signal.
✅ Signal Criteria
Condition Signal
Net ↑ for 13+ weeks AND ROC ↑ for 13+ weeks AND strong long dominance Buy
Net ↓ for 13+ weeks AND ROC ↓ for 13+ weeks AND strong short dominance Sell
Net in top 20% of 1-year range AND net uptrend ≥ 3 Neutral (Overbought)
Net in bottom 20% of 1-year range AND net downtrend ≥ 3 Neutral (Oversold)
None of the above conditions met Neutral
🧭 Trader Tips
  • Trend traders: Follow Buy/Sell signals when all trend and strength conditions align.
  • Contrarian traders: Use Neutral (Overbought/Oversold) flags to anticipate reversals.
  • Swing traders: Use sentiment as a filter to increase trade confidence.
Example:
Net positions rising, strong long dominance, in top 20% of historical range.
Result: Neutral (Overbought) — uptrend may be too crowded.
  • COT data is delayed (released on Friday, based on Tuesday's positions) - it's not real-time.
  • Combine with price action, FVG, liquidity, or technical indicators for best results.
  • Use percentile filters to avoid buying at extreme highs or selling at extreme lows.

Trading Strategy for Sugar No. 11 based on COT Report Analysis (Retail Trader & Market Investor)

This strategy leverages the Commitments of Traders (COT) report to gain insights into the positioning of different market participants in Sugar No. 11 futures contracts and uses this information to inform trading decisions. It's designed for both retail traders and market investors, acknowledging the need for different time horizons and risk tolerances.

Understanding the COT Report:

The COT report, published weekly by the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), provides a breakdown of open interest in futures and options markets, categorized by trader type:

  • Commercial Hedgers: These are entities directly involved in the production, processing, or marketing of sugar (e.g., sugar mills, food manufacturers). They use futures contracts primarily to hedge their exposure to price fluctuations.
  • Non-Commercial Speculators (Large Speculators): These are typically hedge funds, commodity trading advisors (CTAs), and other institutional investors who trade primarily for profit and do not have underlying commercial interests in sugar.
  • Non-Reportable Positions (Small Speculators): This category represents traders whose positions are small enough not to be reported individually.

Key COT Data Points and Interpretations:

  • Net Position of Commercial Hedgers:
    • Large Net Short Position: Suggests commercial hedgers are expecting lower prices, possibly due to anticipated increased supply. This can be a bearish indicator.
    • Large Net Long Position: Suggests commercial hedgers are expecting higher prices, possibly due to anticipated supply shortages. This can be a bullish indicator.
  • Net Position of Non-Commercial Speculators (Large Speculators):
    • Large Net Long Position: Suggests speculative buying pressure anticipating price increases. This can be a bullish indicator, especially if aligned with commercial hedging activity.
    • Large Net Short Position: Suggests speculative selling pressure anticipating price decreases. This can be a bearish indicator, especially if aligned with commercial hedging activity.
  • Changes in Net Positions: Track the changes in net positions over time. A significant increase in the net long position of large speculators alongside a decrease in the net short position of commercial hedgers can be a particularly strong bullish signal. Conversely, the opposite signals a bearish trend.
  • Open Interest: A rising open interest alongside increasing prices supports a bullish trend, while a rising open interest alongside falling prices supports a bearish trend. A decreasing open interest can signal a weakening trend or a potential reversal.

Trading Strategy Components:

  1. Data Collection and Analysis:

    • Access the COT Report: Download the weekly "Sugar No. 11 - ICE Futures U.S." COT report from the CFTC website (https://www.cftc.gov/). Look for the "Combined Futures and Options" report.
    • Track Historical Data: Create a spreadsheet or use a charting platform to track the net positions of commercial hedgers and large speculators over time (at least several months, preferably years). This allows you to identify trends and extremes.
    • Calculate the Net Speculative Position: Subtract the net short position of the commercials from the net long positions of the non-commercials. Large value indicates bullishness while small value indicates bearishness.
    • Chart COT Data: Plot the net positions alongside the Sugar No. 11 price chart to visually analyze correlations.

  2. Identifying Trading Signals:

    • Commercials Leading the Way: The strongest signals occur when large speculators are aligned with the commercial hedgers.
      • Bullish Signal: Commercial hedgers decrease their net short position (covering shorts) and large speculators increase their net long position. This suggests both the industry and speculators believe prices will rise.
      • Bearish Signal: Commercial hedgers increase their net short position (adding shorts) and large speculators increase their net short position (or decrease their net long position). This suggests both the industry and speculators believe prices will fall.
    • Divergence: Pay attention to divergences between price action and COT data.
      • Example: Sugar prices are rising, but large speculators are decreasing their net long position. This could suggest the rally is losing steam and a potential correction is coming.
      • Example: Sugar prices are falling, but commercial hedgers are significantly reducing their net short positions. This could suggest that the drop is overdone and an upturn might be imminent.
    • Extreme Readings: Look for historical extremes in net positions. When large speculators reach historically high net long positions or low net short positions, it may indicate the market is overbought or oversold, respectively, and ripe for a reversal.
    • Changes in Open Interest: Consider the open interest data to confirm the strength of a trend suggested by COT data. A rising open interest in conjunction with a growing net long position of the non-commercials, for example, could indicate more conviction in a bullish trend.

  3. Entry and Exit Strategies:

    • Entry:
      • Confirmation: Use COT signals as a confirmation for your existing technical or fundamental analysis, not as the sole basis for a trade.
      • Entry Triggers: Combine COT signals with price action patterns (e.g., breakouts, pullbacks, candlestick patterns) on the Sugar No. 11 price chart.
      • Conservative Entry: Consider waiting for a confirmation candle (e.g., a bullish engulfing pattern after a bullish COT signal) before entering a long position.
    • Exit:
      • Profit Targets: Set realistic profit targets based on technical analysis (e.g., Fibonacci levels, support/resistance areas).
      • Stop-Loss Orders: Place stop-loss orders below recent swing lows for long positions and above recent swing highs for short positions to limit potential losses.
      • COT Signal Reversal: Monitor the COT report regularly. If the COT signals that initially triggered the trade reverse, consider exiting the position, even if profit targets haven't been reached.
      • Time-Based Exit: Implement a time-based exit strategy, closing the trade after a predetermined period, regardless of profit or loss. This is especially useful for longer-term investors.

  4. Risk Management:

    • Position Sizing: Never risk more than 1-2% of your trading capital on any single trade.
    • Leverage: Be extremely cautious with leverage. Sugar futures contracts are large, and even small price movements can result in significant gains or losses. Retail traders should use very low leverage or avoid it altogether.
    • Diversification: Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify your portfolio across different asset classes and commodities.
    • Market Volatility: Sugar prices can be volatile. Be prepared for price swings and adjust your position size and stop-loss orders accordingly.

  5. Adjustments for Different Trader Profiles:

    • Retail Traders (Short-Term):
      • Focus on more frequent COT updates and shorter-term price action patterns.
      • Use tighter stop-loss orders and smaller position sizes.
      • Consider using options strategies to limit risk and define maximum potential loss.
      • Monitor intraweek price action to adjust positions.
    • Market Investors (Long-Term):
      • Take a longer-term view of the COT data, focusing on overall trends rather than short-term fluctuations.
      • Be less concerned with precise entry and exit points.
      • Use the COT report to confirm longer-term fundamental analysis and macroeconomic outlook.
      • Consider using a buy-and-hold strategy with periodic rebalancing based on COT signals.

Example Trade Scenario (Bullish):

  1. Fundamental Analysis: Your research indicates that there is an increased demand for sugar from beverage companies due to increased consumption.
  2. Technical Analysis: Sugar No. 11 price has broken above a key resistance level at 18.00 cents/lb, forming a bullish flag pattern.
  3. COT Signal:
    • Commercial hedgers have been steadily decreasing their net short positions over the past few weeks, suggesting they are less concerned about price declines.
    • Large speculators have been increasing their net long positions, indicating growing speculative interest.
  4. Entry: Enter a long position at 18.10 cents/lb after the price confirms the breakout of the bullish flag.
  5. Stop-Loss: Place a stop-loss order below the recent swing low at 17.70 cents/lb.
  6. Profit Target: Set a profit target at 19.00 cents/lb based on Fibonacci extensions or previous resistance levels.
  7. Monitoring: Continuously monitor the COT report. If the commercials start adding shorts significantly or the large speculators reduce their long positions, consider reducing or closing the position.

Important Considerations:

  • Lagging Indicator: The COT report is a lagging indicator, meaning it reflects past positions. Market conditions can change rapidly.
  • Market Manipulation: While less common, large participants can sometimes manipulate the market, creating false signals in the COT report.
  • Correlation, Not Causation: The COT report can help identify correlations between trader positioning and price action, but it does not prove causation.
  • Fundamental Analysis is Crucial: The COT report should always be used in conjunction with sound fundamental analysis of the sugar market (supply and demand dynamics, weather patterns, government policies, etc.).
  • Continuous Learning: The commodity markets are constantly evolving. Continuously research and refine your trading strategy.

Disclaimer:

This trading strategy is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The past performance of any trading strategy is not indicative of future results.